Spring Inventory Surge: Making Sense of Our Local Market Numbers

If you've been following my weekly market updates, you know I'm a numbers guy. This comes from my background in accounting and finance before joining the family real estate business. This week's numbers tell an interesting story about what's happening in our local Morris County communities—and what might be on the horizon.

The Inventory Bump We've Been Waiting For

This past week, we saw 68 new homes hit the market across Morristown, Chatham, Madison, Harding, Morris Plains, Mendham, Chester, Bernardsville, Basking Ridge, and Randolph. That's a whopping 79% increase compared to the previous week.

Basking Ridge led the charge with 19 new listings, followed by Morristown with 15. This surge is exactly what our inventory-starved market needs, but there's an important caveat: despite this impressive influx of new listings, our total available inventory only increased by 10% (to 236 homes).

What does this tell us? Homes are still selling faster than they're coming on the market. The inventory is refreshing, but it's not accumulating.

Price Points and Property Types

Of the new listings, 45 were single-family homes and 23 were condos or townhouses. The average list price jumped to $1,509,000—a 62% increase over last week. Before you get too excited (or concerned), this number was significantly influenced by a $9 million listing in Bernardsville that skewed the average.

This mix of property types and price points is encouraging. We're seeing options across different segments of the market, though luxury properties continue to represent a significant portion of the available inventory.

The Competition Factor

The most telling statistics continue to be the sale-to-list price ratios. Homes sold last week went for an average of 7.4% above list price. Even more revealing:

• Not a single town in our area saw homes selling below list price

• Randolph led with homes selling 19% above asking

• Morristown (12.7%) and Chatham (11.9%) weren't far behind

• Even the most conservative areas saw homes selling 2-9% above asking

These premiums over asking price demonstrate just how competitive our market remains. While we might be seeing fewer offers per property compared to the frenzy of last year, the offers that do come in are stronger and more aggressive.

Speed Matters

Homes that sold last week were on the market for an average of 28 days, while properties going under contract had a median of just 18 days on market. The lesson here is clear: well-priced, well-presented homes are still moving quickly.

We saw 39 homes go under contract this past week, slightly down (5%) from the previous week. Chatham and Randolph led with the most contracts, and the average list price of these pending sales was $1.2 million.

What This Means For You

If you're a seller:

The market still strongly favors you. Proper pricing and presentation remain critical, but you can expect:

• Multiple offers in many cases

• Sale prices above asking

• Relatively quick sale timeframes

While the market is strong, remember that buyers have become more discerning. They're paying premiums for move-in ready homes but scrutinizing properties that need work.

If you're a buyer:

Competition remains fierce, but the inventory bump provides some hope. To succeed in this market:

• Be prepared to act quickly when the right property appears

• Understand that offering list price is rarely enough in most communities

• Consider looking in towns that showed more inventory growth (like Basking Ridge)

• Work with someone who can help you craft competitive offers without overpaying

Looking Ahead

Will this inventory surge continue? Historically, May represents one of our strongest months for new listings, so there's reason for cautious optimism. However, with homes continuing to sell quickly, we're not likely to see a dramatic shift in market dynamics in the near term.

What we might see is slightly more choice for buyers and perhaps a moderation in the extreme bidding wars. Instead of 10-15 offers on a property, we might see 3-5 very strong offers—still a seller's market, but with a bit more breathing room for everyone.

The Bottom Line

Our local market continues to move at its own pace, largely disconnected from the national headlines about slowing markets. The spring surge in inventory is a welcome development, but it hasn't fundamentally changed the competitive dynamics in our area.

Whether you're buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on things, understanding these nuances is critical to making informed decisions in today's complex market.